中国老龄事业发展水平时空演化及其与经济发展水平的空间匹配     

曾通刚  赵媛 《地理研究》2019,38(6):1497-1511

基于“积极老龄化”理论框架,从健康、参与和保障三大维度构建中国老龄事业发展水平评价指标体系。以中国大陆31个省（自治区、直辖市）为研究对象,运用数理统计、重心和空间重叠性、空间错位分析和计量经济模型等方法,分析了2004—2016年中国老龄事业发展水平的时序变化、空间格局、错位特征及其影响机制。结果表明：① 2004—2016年,中国老龄事业发展水平整体快速增长,区域差异逐渐缩小,但区域失衡特征不容忽视。东部地区整体水平高于中部、西部及东北地区,并伴有“西部崛起,中部及东北地区塌陷”特征。东部地区呈现“两极化”现象。② 中国老龄事业基本处于低水平发展阶段,空间分布由西南-东北辐射递减模式转变为显著的“中部塌陷”式,形成一条由北向南的低值集聚带,纵贯中国中部,与区域经济发展存在错位关系。③ 负向错位区主要分布在黄河、长江中上游地区,正向错位区主要集中在东部沿海、长城以北等地区。空间错位强度存在显著的地域差异性,其中西部地区尤为显著。④ 老龄事业发展水平的动态变化是多因素交互作用的结果。经济发展水平、政府政策和行政导向及产业结构的时空分异对其产生正向影响。市场经济规模扩大和人口老龄化未对老龄事业发展起推动作用,与理论预期不符。家庭规模小型化的倒逼作用不显著。  相似文献   

On the three-dimensional structure of edge-on disc galaxies     

Michael Pohlen  Saleem Zaroubi  Reynier F. Peletier  Ralf-Jürgen Dettmar 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2007,378(2):594-616

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BL Andromedae and GW Tauri: close binary stars in a key evolutionary stage     

Liying Zhu  Shengbang Qian 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,367(1):423-432

A photoelectric light curve of BL And is presented along with the first CCD light curve of GW Tau. Both objects are short-period eclipsing binaries and were observed in 2003 or 2004. Photometric elements were computed using the latest version of the Wilson–Van Hamme code. The results reveal that BL And is a semidetached system with the primary component filling its Roche lobe and the secondary one almost filling but still detached, while GW Tau is a marginal-contact binary system with a small degree of contact ( f = 10.9 per cent) and a large temperature difference of about 3100 K. All available eclipse times, including new ones, were analysed for each system. It was found that the orbital period of BL And is decreasing at the rate of  d P /d t =−2.36 × 10⁻⁸ (±0.09) d yr⁻¹  while that of GW Tau may be decreasing or oscillating. We think period decrease is more probable. The derived configuration and secular period decrease for BL And combined with the asymmetry of the light curve indicate that this system may evolve from the present semidetached phase into a contact stage, with mass transfer from the primary component to the secondary one through the L ₁ point, or that it might just undergo the broken stage predicted by the theory of thermal relaxation oscillations. In contrast, GW Tau is a marginal-contact binary in poor thermal contact and may be at the beginning of the contact phase.  相似文献   

On the motion around the centre of mass of a viscously elastic sphere in the restricted elliptic three-body problem     

V. G. Demin  Y. G. Markov  I. S. Minyaev 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1990,50(3):231-249

In the restricted three-body problem we consider the motion of a viscously elastic sphere (planet) with its centre of mass moving in a conditionally-periodic orbit. The approximate equations describing the rotational motion of the sphere in terms of the Andoyer variables are obtained by the method of the separation of motion and averaging; the evolution of the motion is also analysed.  相似文献   

Environmental effects on the reproduction and fecundity of the introduced calcareous sponge Paraleucilla magna in Rio de Janeiro,Brazil          下载免费PDF全文

Emilio Lanna  Rodolfo Paranhos  Paulo C. Paiva  Michelle Klautau 《Marine Ecology》2015,36(4):1075-1087

The calcareous sponge Paraleucilla magna (Porifera, Calcarea) has been the subject of several studies in the last decade. It was first described along the Brazilian coast, where it is considered cryptogenic, and was subsequently found in the Mediterranean, where it is considered invasive. The wide artificial distribution of this species allows us to compare different aspects of the biology of an introduced species in different locations. Here, we analysed the effects of selected environmental parameters on the reproductive dynamics of P. magna in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) over 18 months and compared our results with those obtained for the same species in the Mediterranean Sea. Specimens were collected monthly and analysed through histological methods. The density of reproductive elements in each month was calculated, and the effects of environmental parameters (photoperiod, precipitation, temperature, phytoplankton and bacterioplankton) were analysed using a regression tree analysis. Paraleucilla magna was reproductive throughout the study period. The densities of the reproductive elements (oocytes, embryos and larvae) showed no seasonality, and this species presented one of the highest reproductive efforts documented to date in the phylum Porifera (99.0 oocytes · mm^?3; 89.0 embryos · mm^?3; 319.0 larvae · mm^?3). The main environmental parameters related to the reproduction of P. magna were temperature, photoperiod and bacterioplankton. Temperature was the main driver associated with the densities of oocytes and embryos, while bacterioplankton was the main driver of larvae (positive relationships). In Rio de Janeiro, larvae were present and continuously released. This strategy is different from that observed in the Mediterranean, where a larger larval output was observed but only during the summer months. Our results show that P. magna is a species with a strong invasive potential, considering its high and continuous reproductive effort. This high fecundity stimulated by high temperatures may be a key factor contributing to the growth of P. magna populations and its invasion of new areas.  相似文献   

1979-2010年我国大陆海岸潟湖变迁的多时相遥感分析     

孙伟富  张杰  马毅  夏东兴 《海洋学报》2015,37(3):54-69

潟湖是重要的海岸湿地类型,具有丰富的自然资源和独特的生态功能。近几十年来,我国的海岸潟湖遭到了极大破坏,因此,开展我国海岸潟湖遥感监测与分析具有重要意义。本文根据1979年、1990年、2000年和2010年的4期共102景多时相遥感影像数据,利用遥感和地理信息系统等技术方法对我国大陆海岸潟湖进行了遥感监测,首次调查统计了我国大陆海岸潟湖的名称、数量、分布、岸线长度和面积信息,并对近31年来我国大陆海岸潟湖的变迁状况进行了分析。结果表明,1979年我国大陆海岸潟湖共计251个,近31年,共消失19个潟湖,其中辽宁省消失15个,广东省消失3个,广西壮族自治区消失1个;1979年我国大陆海岸潟湖岸线总长度为2 692.26km,总面积为1 092.805 5km2,至2010年我国大陆海岸潟湖岸线总长度共减少337.80km,潟湖总面积共减少204.103km2;31年间,我国大陆海岸潟湖的岸线长度和潟湖面积总体均处在持续减少的状态,各省(自治区)也基本符合该规律;1979-2010年间,我国大陆海岸潟湖大部分处在老年期,死亡期潟湖消失19个。  相似文献   

温州南鳌江口海域海床近期冲淤演变分析     

申伟杰  汪一航  张钊  刘甜甜 《海洋通报》2015,34(3):303-309

温州南部鳌江口海域近年来先后完成了筑坝促淤、围垦吹填、维护航道等一系列影响水流泥沙和地形地貌变化的大型工程。根据2010年实测水文泥沙资料和4幅不同时期(1963,2003,2005,2011年)地形图对比分析了鳌江口海域的地形变化趋势,结果显示鳌江口海域海床冲淤过程大体上经过了3个不同时期,即1963-2003年江南围涂等海区缓慢淤积期;2003-2005年该海域既冲刷又淤积的稳定期;2005-2011年整个水域以轻微冲刷为主的冲刷期。经过分析得知鳌江口海域海床近年来的变化主要是由航道疏浚、围垦吹填及工程促淤引起的,而围填海工程引起动力变化和泥沙减少也对海床冲淤有一定程度的影响。  相似文献   

Deterministic and ensemble storm surge prediction for Atlantic Canada with lead times of hours to ten days     

《Ocean Modelling》2015

Regional deterministic and ensemble surge prediction systems (RDSPS and RESPS respectively) are used to forecast sea levels off the east of Canada and northeast US. The surge models for the RDSPS and RESPS have grid spacings of 1/30° and 1/12° respectively. The models are driven by surface air pressure and 10 m winds generated by operational global deterministic and ensemble prediction systems that are run operationally by the Canadian Meteorological Centre. Surge forecasts are evaluated for the period 1 March, 2013 to 31 March 2014. Based on traditional statistics (e.g., standard deviation of the difference between observations and predictions) both systems are shown to have skill in forecasting surges six days into the future. It is shown however that skill exists beyond six days if allowance is made for errors in the timing of large surges. The usefulness of the RESPS is demonstrated for two positive surges (important for coastal flooding and erosion) and a negative surge (important for safe navigation in shallow water). It is shown that the RESPS can identify events not forecast by the RDSPS, and can also add useful additional information on the timing of the surge, an important consideration in tidally dominated waters. Several new types of display are used to illustrate the sort of information that can be generated by the RESPS to support the issuers of warnings of unusually high and low total water levels.  相似文献   

东营凹陷八面河北部斜坡带构造特征及形成机制     

张蕾 《山东国土资源》2015,31(6)

研究了东营凹陷八面河北部斜坡带的断裂特征、构造演化特征及其形成机制,明确了该区的断裂展布特点和断层活动性,弄清了北部斜坡带的演化规律,同时分析该区的构造变形特征。结果表明：中生代以后,八面河地区存在2种独立的构造变形系统：一是板块边缘相互作用力;二是到后期由于板块的持续俯冲,地幔底辟作用在岩石圈底面产生的牵引力。八面河北部地区在这2种构造力的综合作用下,不同时期表现出不同的构造变形特征。  相似文献   

惠民凹陷大芦家地区馆陶组三段沉积微相类型及空间展布     

国景星  郭卫萍  刘斌楠  曹铮 《地球科学与环境学报》2015,(1)

针对惠民凹陷大芦家地区各断块地层单元划分不一致,沉积相认识存在分歧等问题,依据旋回级次、旋回性质等,将馆陶组三段划分出2个四级旋回、4个五级旋回、16个六级旋回;并以岩芯及室内分析资料、测井资料等为主要依据,综合分析岩石类型、粒度及结构特征、垂向粒序变化、层理构造类型及自然电位曲线形态等。结果表明:惠民凹陷大芦家地区馆陶组三段主要发育冲积扇及辫状河;冲积扇主要发育辫流砂岛、辫流沟道、辫流带、漫流席状砂、远端砂丘等微相;辫状河主要发育心滩,辫状河道充填,天然堤、漫滩和道间洼地沉积,泛滥平原沉积,废弃河道等微相;2个四级旋回的沉积相类型及空间展布特征相似;第Ⅰ五级旋回在研究区中偏西部属冲积扇沉积,主要发育辫流砂岛、辫流沟道、辫流带微相,在东部属扇前平原沉积;第Ⅱ五级旋回早期以辫状河沉积为主,河道规模较大,仅在第Ⅱ1六级旋回的东北部位见冲积扇的辫流砂岛及辫流沟道微相;第Ⅱ五级旋回中期属辫状河沉积,河道规模减小,2个河道群自NW向SE方向流动;第Ⅱ五级旋回晚期河道规模更小,逐渐向曲流河沉积过渡。  相似文献